| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-12 01:27:15 |
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| laaran |
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According to Trichet, Euro was at a perfect level 6 months ago.
One euro was = 1.55 dollar
In August, the exportations of the euro-zone to countries outside the euro-zone fell.
Nearly to 0 !
It was not the crisis of october.
It was the crisis of a strong euro, of a chosen financial attitude of the leader of the European Central Bank.
Since 2 months, Trichet changed his attitude completely.
And the euro is now at a better level.
One euro is = 1.25 dollar
But exportations are not back, at least not yet.
Trichet now tries to hide behind the economical crisis. If we are bad, it is because of the crisis of october. Only.
No. It started in august, when the euro was much too high, when the exportations fell.
It was a choice of the European Central Bank leaders. Do they assume this choice ? Why don't they resign ? They did a mistake, it was a mistake.
Why shall young people be without work, and irresponsible adults shall get a job ? Because they suffered during the second world war (when they were child) ? But many other people of the same age suffered during the war, and these people are scared and are losing money. Why shall these people pay, and not the leaders ? |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-12 01:34:07 |
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| laaran |
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Maybe it is a question of atmosphere.
This is a dinner for a Nobel prize ceremony.
And the building of the European Central Bank probably offers nice dinners.
So the photo of the dinner.
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-12 01:37:40 |
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| laaran |
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The worst is not the rich plates or decorations of this dinner.
It is the real atmosphere.
In fact, in such dinner, people don't really appreciate each other (some do, and many do not). They think about their careers, and they try to meet only the ones they like.
And they care very little for the decoration itself. It is expensive, but that is just a ceremony. They do it because it is mandatory. And they probably complain (like I do) when they have to dress before the ceremony.
Why keep expensive ceremonies for everything ? Shall we keep all habits of the pasts, and add expensive habits to expensive habits, and finally lack money for simple things ? |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-12 21:34:11 |
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| Quetzal |
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hm, laaran, the problem is simple, Mr trichet have to "regulate" the quantity of monay in the the eurozone. bank create new monay with loan.
if bank create to much monay, there is inflation. and to stop inflation the central bank got the capacity to change the "tax" on loans.
but there is today a crisis of bank, and bank do not create enaogh monay, then it becomes difficult to get it, and there is a recession, the price of things goes down, but do not get customers, because everybody wait for better days to buy things. then, the central bank have to tax less monay to help people to got new loans from bankers.
it's not really complex, but mr trichet got an economic goal, to maintains inflation of price to a reasonable level, caus it maintains the capacities of our monay to buy something. with inflation there is inflation of price, but depreciation of the monay. in recession people become richers because price become lower, but everyone waits for better price no-one buy something, and enterprise lose monay, and finish to kill jobs, finaly many people become less rich
the politic of mr trichet is really "into" a monetarist politic, is not that bad, because at last, and for a long period it create a real "trust" in the euro, which really important for a new monay which have to prew its capacity to resist and protect the value of things and investissement in the european economy
but there is a thing a do not really like in the way the union use this monay, they do not use its strongness to help european exportation. if its a good thing to got a good "etalon" for value things, this "étalon" should got a price for those which get it outside of europe for protect their asset as if they were buying gold. and this tax should be affected to an help for exportation, because strong monay do not help industrie to export. it's a shame to see airbus to gives jobs outside europe sayingin the same time to young european, hey your to expensive whatever your the best ingeniors and workers.
at last, this strong euro hide many things as the price of gaz, and other things into our importation, our industry should evoluate in the knowledge of these high level price with more economy into and into method of remplacement of what we're not producing here.
in many ways euro killed exportation for comon product because they're really less expensive in importation. at last it kills jobs as a recession, which is not what mr trichet i think really wants. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-12 22:22:09 |
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| laaran |
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I think I agree with all your post.
So Trichet, who was searching for another goal, reduced the exportations of the euro-zone to 0.
It is really annoying, and it is not due to the financial crisis of october (or to its consequences).
It is due to the economical choices of Trichet.
In my opinion, this danger is much greater than the danger of inflation. It is just my opinion.
In front of my eyes, I see no discussion about this in newspapers. Was Trichet right or not ? What was the biggest danger : inflation or 0-exportation ? This is not an opinion, I am sure that the three main economical newspapers of France (Les échos and La tribune and l'Expansion) don't have this discussion. I think you know the french habit, when there is a silence, there is something to hide. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-13 21:59:21 |
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| Quetzal |
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the choise of trichet is ot really it's own choise, the stabilty pact is a political choise accepted in the maastrich treaty.
deeply the problem is deep in history, and in german history. after the crisis of 29 or before i don't there was a major inflation anything was costing billon marks, since these time "inflation" is the principal economic fear of german as french are affraid that the sky fall on their head. this inflation was certainly the principal caus of the unhappiness of german during the weimar republik, and with what hitler found the way to its populism, to much people were affraid of the bad conomical situation.
then, the euro monay has been accepted by german with this condition that the euro become as strong as the mark. the pact of stabilty and the cosciousness of Mr trichet to the 0-inflation is espeacealy made to not have the return of inflation whatever it kills jobs everywhere in europe, and kills exportation.
sure german are obvioulsy right to be affraid of inflation, but they should be as affraid of the 0-exportation in the euroland, which like a recession for enterprise, which pull people out their jobs. the political "danger is the same with too much inflation than a big recession, because, if inflation killed the capacity of a monaie to buy something, it's like to lose a job and to see your own capacity of buying things vanishing, whatever the monay stay strong and the price do not change.
there one thing germans may be do not understand is that the rest of europe do not have this "inflation" fear, and the economical culture which goes with this fear. but it's true french are not enough cartesian whatever they could say |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-14 00:30:34 |
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| laaran |
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I think I see why you introduce germans.
Yes, they were pushing for a strong euro. On the opposite, Sarkozy tried to oppose this, and even quarelled with Trichet.
The germans were influencing Trichet, but after all, Trichet could have another attitude.
There was no german killer waiting each morning in front of the house of Trichet. Trichet, like some people, was thinking "germans have a better economy, so I shall trust them, they know economy better than the french president Sarkozy". Trichet was thinking like that, and it was a mistake. So he should resign. After, if he wants to complain to his german friends, it is his problem. It is written in no official text "the germans are the best, and the European Central Bank must follow their opinion".
Trichet did his arrivist job when he pushed away Duisenberg. And in fact, we discover that he has no idea, just following the german influence. Then why get the place, why not give it simply to a german person ? Because Trichet wanted this place, this is a very selfish motivation.
Also, in the first agreement, Duisenberg was going to stay 4 years and Trichet 4 years (as president of the ECB). But no, it changed mysteriously after the death of Duisenberg. Suddenly, Trichet will do 8 years.
Why ? Does he need more money to pay a castle somewhere for himself and for his family ? |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-15 05:31:37 |
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| Quetzal |
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hm, not really i think, trichet has ever been a monay maker. but, if trichet is this place, it's by the volonty of Chirac, which hhave said "Ok for the strong euro" but in exchange trichet will be the présient of the euro central bank. I don't think i more complex than that.
At last trichet follow the monetarist liberal ideologie in economie born in think with bretton wood and the end of the parity of dollar in gold.
but if you want you want to "bomb" trichet on personnal view on power, well all you see at this level of influance got teeth as long as empire state building, and for trichet as the eiffel tower. nothing really exeptionnal then, it was him or oneanother, there's many clone of trichet around him abble to do this job.
if that a good politic? may be, but i don't think it's perfect, but it's not bad for built trustness in a new "big" monay. in fact, this strongness of euro is really important next to dollars and the usual ways of american to let it flow their monay in the way they want. it's not really good for the investissement visibilities in the world to get a monay as dollars wich goes up and down for nothing. if Euro is stable, it give an "assurence" for futur for those who will buy this monay, and the more this monay will be stable the more it become an "etalon" to value things, trade, and economies in the world.
where this theory is not perfect, is that a monay is not may be done for that, usual monay is more here to help in exchange, not to be an "etalon to value things". it's certianly where the monetarist theorie is not so right, because, if you melt these two concept in one, your monay become as heavy as gold, it's a good think to keep it into "forknox" but not easy to live with everyday to simple people as we are in europe.
for me europe should built a real gold etalon of value aligned with it's own economie, eurogold standart, for exemple, something as strong as gold, and espeaclly made to become a reserve of change in international trade. and newt to this "perfect and inoxydable monay" the simple euro for daily transaction and other stuff, a monay a little easier to use.
at last, it's impossible to get a strong economy with a to strong monay, it's heavyness or expensivness will kill all industries and many jobs in europe, at last you got a recession because there not enough people in your own market abble to finance the "local workers" it's a infernal spirale of destruction of the capacities of your own richness, wich is not in the monay, but in all the micro fonctionalities done everydays by everyworkers in a societies. if Monay is too strong, you can't sell what you built and made caus it's too exepensive whatever it's the best or an essential product.
and if your "real economies goes down" your gold-monay which is built on, lose it's strongness, at last, you've lost your outside market, exportation, your industries, your society ain't got enought usual fonctionalities done by workers, high level unemployement, and an untrustable monay.
world got a problem to value thing, Kings have ever thougt that monay was one of their privilege. but monay is first an "etalon" as meter or celsius. and an etalon should not float as monay do. monay is just the "human energie" in the economical system, monay serves to value "human work" then to value the efficacity of the work of a human being. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-15 09:54:53 |
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| laaran |
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hm, not really i think, trichet has ever been a monay maker.
You think that, I think the opposite.
It is based for you and for me on psychology.
In fact, I don't wish to know.
The french population is terribly disappointing about this subject. I share the shame with you, and even the loss of money due to the lack of exportations.
but, if trichet is this place, it's by the volonty of Chirac, which hhave said "Ok for the strong euro" but in exchange trichet will be the présient of the euro central bank. I don't think i more complex than that.
When did Chiract say that ?
Strong, 8 years ago, was meaning a euro = 1.20 dollar (in the head of most economists). Never 1.55 dollar
Also, Chirac never says "Trichet should stay 8 years".
Of course, nobody wants the job now, it is too late. Or we need real firemen for economy, better than the ones we have in France. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-16 06:59:35 |
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| Quetzal |
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yeap we certainly need better firemen in france, but in fact in the world too, the neo-liberal ways shows their limits, it's anarchia in finance and in economy. in fact we need real fireman, because those we got now are firestarters. but these one do not have yet ready the deepness of their lack of wisdom with playing with complex mathematik and hight level risk in economy. sometime it works, sometime you've to paye 36times what you've play, the bank sometime lose against the great player, the hand of market. they can trick the game a time, but not all the time.
i was readding something with the off-shore place, and other bank parradise. whatever a lot scream against them, they ever think that nothing can't changed the game against them. i think that this crisis will show the inverse, caus the problem of the trustness in the market is all in the idea of transparency. which is the other face of the natural regulation whishing by neo-liberal. their no other way in global world (not in the last national world). they have to disapear, and this is why market goes down. to many people trick the market then the market can not juge the real value of enterprise and eliminate progressivly all the junk-players. and this is these junk-player who need the bank parradise and other offshore place, caus if they were not exiting, these player will be immediatly visible in the market, by local justice, by economical press, and they'll kick out by other players. like it should have to be.
the market until these place, until switzerland, gersey guernesay bahamas, cocoilsand and other have not be exclude of finacial trade by all countries, the market will ever got this bullet in the feet. it can't work like this. they must disapear. the actual crisis is a growing crisis of the global financial market. the snake got to change its skin, and get better rules, fair rules beetwen all the participant all they will all dies in the obcurity of these little black holes of the global market.
for euro monay, the problem stay that its strongness next the dollars will be more and more difficult. they should better glue euro to the dollars to preserve the parity of monay whatever it's not the "perfect credo", american should not have play with their monay the last 8years, and their economy and our economy certainly will be really better with a better manay stability.
but it's too late, dollars will go it's way down to inferno, producing a deep level of conurence by a really low-cost monay. as ever those who ask the less win the play. euro monay protect those who got monay, but do not protect what make the value of finance, on what the value of the monay is made, the strongness of the real economy.
the dollars can goes down, it will not change a lot the capacity of invention and the attractiviy of the US economy, caus with a low cast monay, whatever you lose in the change, the security of the investissement is not assured by the central bank, but by the capcity to export easily what you've product. which is the opposite of the european monetarist ways, who hopes in the stongness of its monay which killing its own market and capacity of exportation. simple but cruel. Europe should be readdy to follow usa in its fall, or it be not easy to product something be there. USA is just diving it's monay not far of chinese one, europe will not be enought strong to stay a long time at this difference of level of change.
hegel was right in this slave-master thoery, the master is the prisoner of his slave, caus, the master need it's slave to live, this is the lesson of china to the wolrd, and the lesson to europe is to not trade that much with china, they should find other land for their low cost trading. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-16 10:08:53 |
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| laaran |
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It is not anarchia in finance.
It was a race for profit, and also for high salaries (in many companies, some young people feel perfectly normal to be paid 2 or 3 times more than a person who is 50 years old, for their first work, just because they did 5 years of studies after baccalauréat).
We know it can't last long like that.
And now, it is the end. It needs to go down, because it climbed too much.
It will be a problem here, because some leaders thought "we can integrate many immigrants thanks to our strong economical growth".
But the law in capitalism is that capital is necessary for growth, not only clever employees who work hard.
Here, the problem of immigration will get more obvious. That is why I leave soon. After all, they destroyed my life. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-16 13:25:21 |
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| Quetzal |
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hm, laaran, neo-liberal thinkers are neo-darwinian thinkers, they think that there is a god somewhere who rules the games. But theres no god only natural equilibre, and those do not understand well how works the natural links, that why they're falling with their financial babel construction.
what did have said R.reagan than State was the problem in economia? is that not a typical anarchist sentence, a naturalist sentence who can not stand that for a society it need to have a power which regulate things to help the society to live in peace. neo-libéral thinkers who only love market instead of states and démocratical regulation only hopes on a certain perfect justice of nature, who exlude naturally losers and help the betters. what they forget is that is not a humanist civilisation, it's barbaric way, natural way to rules societies.
in this theories states got no utility, then why power, and why armies if nature is the best place to live and god it's perfect judge. why those liberal do not have killed the federation, which get too much taxes for politician, armies police and poor, where naturally anyone could protect it-self, his familly, his asset just with its guns..
you're down laaran, i'm sorry for you, i really hope you'll find soon something else for live. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-16 20:43:10 |
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| laaran |
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Hum.
I am not down.
This country is down. Nearly everybody says what I say.
If the strong immigration does not create problems, other things or people will create problems.
It is always like that here, people refuse to see the middle-term or long-term future, and they get angry when their situation changes (downward) for one or two years.
I think that Trichet is down too. He refuses to leave, because he knows this is his last job. It is a problem (and honestly a serious difficult moment for the life of most employees), leave definitively the world of working people, and enter the world of retired people.
He probably needs more help than I do. But I don't think that the European Central Bank has this goal. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-18 06:58:05 |
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| Quetzal |
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laaran it's not the only country which is down, but it's depend from where you're speeking.
Trichet will stay during the hurican because the cap'tain as to die with it's stupid system, and until trivhet do not leave it means that there is ever luck to save something. if it was not, all those one will disapear in switzerland, of gersay and guernesay, or monaco to find a peacefull arbour in a burning world. island are naturally good place to be, because you can see far away problems and thieves comming.
but could i thing a little song for him, " you coming from a "parradise" island, and your cuting diamond with a rubber knife" is that, laaran the good song to sing. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-18 10:06:50 |
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| laaran |
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It is a bit easy.
First this hurican is not that strong. It is strong, but it covers a large area, so that makes it weaker for each point of the covered surface.
Secondly, do you really want it ? Shall the system die now, in a quick and complete way ? Many people built things around this system, shall all that disappear quickly and completely ? |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2008-12-18 12:34:36 |
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| laaran |
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Also, the americans continue to send their money down.
With very low interest rates.
It is not new.
They use this method regularly when they have a crisis. Chinese dictators who are friends of the USA use exactly the same method.
Is that really better for chinese population ? On one hand, yes, they have a fast industrial development. On the other hand, it will get more and more painful with a high price of oil.
For other importation products, I don't really know. I know that Microsoft sells Windows Vista for one dollar there (yes sells), which is clearly part of the USA-China union.
So "we" need to bring euro down.
There are possibilities for that, not only interest rate.
As Trichet is stupid, he probably will not do it. And as he is the "captain", the euro will probably remain too high. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2009-01-04 14:02:42 |
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| laaran |
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I know why no one cares in France.
The website of the university of Dauphine (the main parisian university for economy) is down.
The site
It tells
The proxy server received an invalid response from an upstream server.
The proxy server could not handle the request GET /.
That means : "everybody is on holiday, come back later."
It will probably work again tomorrow (the end of the holidays for schools).
The french method : wait and see. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2009-01-30 20:45:30 |
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| laaran |
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It is a bit better now.
Euro went much down.
It remains just a bit high.
They probably paid holidays to Trichet, and could open the documents he was hiding on his computer. Now they should buy a new computer, and give him the new computer, with games on it instead of serious documents. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2009-01-30 20:47:41 |
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| laaran |
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Oh, no, Trichet is probably in Davos.
Anyway, the thing for the computer, it remains possible. |
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| Author |
| Posted on 2009-02-08 14:03:48 |
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| laaran |
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The link in french only
Patrick Devedjian, a minister of "relance" (= make the economy healthy again, everybody hopes for it..) is complaining because the european interest rates are not low-very low.
He says "what the USA, UK, Japan are doing is good (very low interest rates), and we (europeans) must copy, and we are late".
Let's analyze.
The group of the actual french president (not only the government, those who think like he does) like new ideas.
Now, we see their source. The neighbours.
Their ideas are just copies of the attitude of the neighbours.
Are "we" late ?
We have higher interest rates (than USA, UK, Japan) since two years. Since a few months, the european interest rates were strongly reduced.
Must they go lower, and reach the very low level of the USA ?
Are we late now ? Or were we late one year ago, and are we fine now ? |
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