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The flaw in Pascal wager/gambit
 
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Posted on 2006-11-24 12:28:36
laaran
French people sure knows this text "le pari de Pascal".
I don't know for people in other countries.
In this text, Pascal (or whoever wrote this) compares religion with a game, a game with a wager, for example with dices.

Is this text important ? It was to me. My conclusion was the opposite of Pascal conclusion...

I don't quote the full text, it is easy to find on internet.
I just quote the flaw (this is the only mathematical flaw I can see in the text, and other flaws are not interesting to me).
fr: Tout joueur hasarde avec certitude pour gagner avec incertitude; et néanmoins il hasarde certainement le fini pour gagner incertainement le fini, sans pécher contre la raison.
en: It is not so, as every player stakes a certainty to gain an uncertainty, and yet he stakes a finite certainty to gain a finite uncertainty, without transgressing against reason.

In all human games, there is a chance to win. And we can calculate this chance. And we can say : "oh, the chance (to win) is too small, I don't play".
For religion, we can not calculate the chance. So it is a different situation.

We can compare the wager of Pascal with those who were searching for gold. Some were buying a piece of land, and in many cases, there was no gold at all in this piece of land. Could they calculate the chance of finding gold ? No.
(for oil today, this is different, companies have a lot of models/measures to find the position of fields).
Yet before buying, they could observe the surrounding fields. How can we do that with religion ? What is around our own Death ? Another religion or the other deads ?
What shall we do : learn about other religions ? Or try to speak with deads ?


Oh. Last point. In this text, there is no hell. Either you get something nice after Death, either you get nothing at all. If you get something after Death, it is always nice (in this text).
This is the strangest part of the text. God will not punish someone after Death...
That was the most important to me. If there is no hell, then I have nothing to lose.
 
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